Commerzbank: Raises price forecasts for copper, aluminum, and zinc; lowers nickel price forecast.
2025.12.02


   Commerzbank has revised its base metal price forecasts, citing favorable recent momentum amid rising prices. "We have revised our base metal price forecasts, and in most cases, base metal prices will be higher than previously expected," said Thu Lan Nguyen, head of FX and commodities research at the bank, in a report. The bank now expects copper to average $10,500 per tonne by year-end, up from $9,600 previously. The average price forecast for aluminum rose to $2,900 from $2,600, and the zinc forecast was revised upwards to $3,000 from $2,800. Nguyen added that given the supply background, the current strength in copper prices may be premature, leaving room for a short-term pullback. He lowered his nickel price forecast to $15,000 per tonne from $16,000, citing slowing production growth but continued ample nickel supply, which is putting downward pressure on nickel prices. After a brief dip earlier this month, U.S. aluminum import premiums have surged to record highs due to domestic shortages, a 50% tariff, and tight global supply. LME inventories have declined since mid-October, suggesting the tariff-driven supply effect may be waning, while the surge in inventories at the end of October may be related to a trader replenishing their stock for financial transactions.

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